30.1.07

new Russian military doctrine

Ilya Platov responds to the questions of Harry Papasotiriou and Tom
Hashimoto (29 January), regarding the new Russian military doctrine:

1) In the communication of General Gareev, China is mentioned only
once, in a positive context--together with NATO, the European Union and
India, it is considered to be an essential pillar of the multipolar world
Russia is calling for.

2) North Korea is mentioned only once, again in a positive context: the
General considers that poverty is not the only cause of terrorism, and
uses the example of North Korea, which is a poor country without
terrorism. (Terrorism for Russia is always terrorism against the State.
The term “rogue state” is not a part of the Russian political vocabulary.)
Training the North Korean military is a different issue. I have no
information about this; if it were true, it would not be in the Russian
government's interest to disclose it. In my opinion, however, Russia does
not want a nuclear power near its borders. It is therefore unlikely it
would assist NK with its nuclear program.

3) It is not currently “politically correct” to consider China a
“threat” (that country recently celebrated a “year of Russia”). The
Russian military reacted in a contradictory fashion to the Chinese
satellite destruction. Profitable military and energy contracts, support
for an anti-NATO strategy in the South (Iran and the Caucasus) make China
an indispensable ally for Russia. Again, it is Russia’s strategy in the
“Near Abroad” that dictates the choice of “external” allies. China is not
viewed as a rival in this region. We can predict that in the future,
provided that Russia’s relations with the EU will go sour because of
Ukraine or Georgia, Russia will seek compensation in an “eastern
alliance," something that “Eurasianist” ideologists are currently
advocating (historically, failure in the West invariably pushed Russia to
explore the possibility of eastern expansion--Central Asia after the
Crimean War in the 1860s, Far Eastern policy prior to Russian-Japanese
War).

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